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SENSEX
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SENSEX
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Hang Seng
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Economy

Has the economy troughed out finally?

Updated : December 13, 2019 09:41 AM IST

The October industrial output at -3.8 percent indicates that while things were bad they were not as bad as September

The November air traffic growth at 11.2 percent is the fastest monthly growth in 2019

Has the economy troughed out finally?

The November consumer inflation has come in at a 40-month high of 5.54 percent, pushed up largely by food inflation at 10 percent and vegetable inflation at 36 percent. Is the rising inflation a sign that demand is picking up? Perhaps not, since core inflation at 3.5 percent remains at a multi-year low.

Inflation trend

However, the October industrial output at -3.8 percent indicates that while things were bad they were not as bad as September.

The early indications for November are even better. Power supply at -4.2 percent is bad but nowhere as bad at -12/8 percent in October.

Fuel consumption in November actually rose dramatically at 10.5 percent.

And even more heartening is the November air traffic growth at 11.2 percent is the fastest monthly growth in 2019.

So is the economy recovering? Surely the first signs of troughing out are here.

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